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Previous Bulletins / Bulletins Précédents
June 2006 - Currency and Banks
publié le mardi 12 septembre 2006
- Strong Assessment of Dram.
 Multiple Reasons Origine to this Evolution.
Few Results of Banking System in 2005.
The Implication of International Financial Corporation (IFC) in Armenia.
Extension of a "Bank Turan Alem" - BTA -Towards Turkey.
Dutch Group Meeting in Yerevan.
Strong Assessment of Dram.
In May, the AMD assessment was estimated 4.3% relative to the USD and 7.63% since the beginning of the year 2006.
Multiple Reasons Origine to this Evolution.
a) According to the IMF representative in Armenia, the reasons of AMD appreciation are multiple :
The money transfers mostly from Russia increased more in second quarter of 2006. In fact, an important portion of one billion US dollars, receives Armenia every year from Russia.
It is interesting to know as well, the influence rate of exchange of the Russian rouble against the American dollar (USD / RUR) on the amount of these transfers, as the majority Armenian expatriates in Russia do their transfers in USD instead of RUR.
The increase of Russian gas price,
The increase of foreign investments in Armenia ;
A weak USD against other currencies.
b) For the CBA it is the result of the interaction of supply and demand and not a governemental manipulation.
The CBA will continue its policy of following exchange as for as the dollar could be introduced in the economy of the country.
A policy encouraged by IFM and WB.
The AMD has lost 30% against to US dollar, since 2003 and 9% less than a month.
This estimation has a negative consequence on the export and incomes based on the transfers (expatriates or relatives).
The dram appreciation against the dollar is as good as against Euro.
c) For the representatives of bank sector, the reasons of the appreciation could be resumed as follow :
General depreciation of US dollar,
Economic development in the country,
Coming in currencies, and the fall of the US dollar demand. For example, Armeconombank registered in may, an increment of 35% of foreign transfers.
A low gas consumption due a milder climate.
The Central Bank’s policy against the "dollarization".
Fitch’s notation of Armenia, which qualifies the macroeconomic policy stable. "The impressive economic performances understood by a vigorous and coherent macroeconomic policy, as well the structural reforms have augmented the capacity of the economy to face exterior shocks."
d) For the public opinion. According to a survey done by an Armenian daily "Lraguir" the main reason of the appreciation of Dram is the speculation on the national currency. Whereas the 26% think the assessment might be the consequence of the economic policy by CBA, and 5% that it could be the devaluation of the dollar in general.
- Few Results of Banking System in 2005.
The profit in 2005 : 12 billion AMD.
Total capital on 31/3/2006 : 99 252.6 m AMD (+4.7%)
Total assets on 31/3/2006 : 466 152.3 m AMD (+5.8%)
Total credits on 31/3/2006 : 201 541.7 m AMD (+6.9%)
According to CBA, 21 banks were operating on 31/3/2006.
- The Implication of International Financial Corporation (IFC) in Armenia.
IFC intends to acquire 10% of Inecobank’s shares for an estimated amount of 1.3 m USD. By this operation IFC will confirm its presence in the banking field, since it will contribute 4 million US dollars to Armeconombank credit program for SME and real estate sector.
- Extension of a "Bank Turan Alem" - BTA -Towards Turkey.
This Kazakh bank signed an agreement to purchase 33.98% shares of the Turkish Sekerbank’s capital. The deal is estimated 256 million US dollar and will be transfered on 31 October 2006. The Turkish Sekerbank is the 17th over 47 operating banks in Turkey on 31/12/2005 the assets represented 2.3 billion US dollars for a capital of 261 million.
This agreement will elaborate private Turkish investments into Kazakhstan.
The commodity turnover between these two countries reached to 557 million US dollars in 2005, and the Turkish investments in Kazakh economy during the last 12 years represented 900 million US dollars.
The BTA own assets evaluated 9.2 billion US dollars, and a capital of 1.6 billion. BTA develops its activities in 9 different countries : Russia, China, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, Ukraine, Kirghistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan.
The Armenian BTA Investbank is relatively a weak bank ranked last position on the Armenian banking system.
- Dutch Group Meeting in Yerevan.
The Dutch Group of the IMF is composed of 12 member states : Armenia, Bosnia - Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Israel, Croatia, Moldova, Georgia, Romania, Ukraine, Cyprus and Macedonia. The Executive Director of IMF, the Vice President of the World Bank and the Vice Prime Minister of Neetherlands participated to this meeting.
The discussions were mostly based on the bilateral trade development and taxation systems.
To note, a prior meeting was held in Armenia on 16 June between Armenia and IMF.
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